Economists predicted that the industrial output would decline yet again, however, overnight data from China showed that China’s economy is roaring once again.
This is tied with a huge inflation figure of 3.5%, bringing the year to date CPI growth to 2.8%, china could face huge problems to keep its CPI under 3% for the full year. If industry activities pick up to year end, China may have no choice but to raise its deposit rate.
In fact, China should. Many medias guessing that it would as this inflation data was released earlier than usual (during a weekend). The media rumour that the Chinese might be deciding this rate hike over the weekend. Currently, inflation has far exceeded the deposit rate, causing Chinese ppl to invest in housing so as to protect against inflation. However, this may cause another real estate bubble and threaten the chinese and global economy.
While many economists somehow want to chuck this idea of a rate hike away, it has become more certain that the Chinese would hike the interest rate. Expect some monetary tightening.
what to expect?
A spike in the global markets seem probable. Short positions might have to be covered or reduced.
I will not be chasing any stocks at high prices. I will still wait for the retracement of the Dow to 10300 before making any long decisions. Meanwhile, should the market surge upwards, then I will be looking at good short positions to take.
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