I have been bearish since 2 weeks ago, but the market kept climbing. Nevertheless, I took advantage of that bullishness by making tiny long trades. However, lately I have make considerable short trades in anticipation of this reversal.
The reversal is not confirmed yet. But it will be confirmed if tomorrow’s a down day again.
Let’s consult the DOW chart again, as I believe that technical analysis paints the best picture.
This time, I am using the S&P chart instead of the DOW just to show that they are almost he same.
We see the MACD making a cross there, signaling a top. We could see a few days ago, bears tried to take her down, but failed. This time, bears might want to take her own again tomorrow.
I am keeping the charts very simple as most big funds only play on this. A cross of the middle bollinger band confirms the downtrend for maybe 5 more trading sessions. This is because the market is highly overbought.
All my previous calls for trades for BAC at $12.80, X at $39 still holds. (see tags for BAC and X)
It was good to be patient, I might revise lower some of the calls as the earnings seasons heat up, starting with alcoa this thursday.
Keeping it short today, the trade is to go bearish. I have to study now for my exam tomorrow.
PS:
I am just but a student giving my opinion of the markets. I CANNOT control the market in anyway, even all my readers together cannot MOVE the market Materially… so just read my opinions as-is, and please comment to help improve my opinions. Peace :)
3 comments:
I just want to know if time to short LVS right now.
I was doing my DCF analysis on LVS, and I saw that LVS might be cash flow negative for 2010 and 2011. So they really need some financing stuff here, and that will increase their interests.
It is in my opinion that someone is pumping LVS, so that it has enough equity value to allow another cheap Bond financing. That's what i truly think. So LVS is overhyped.
My DCF value is really only $25, tats factoring in a growth rate of 50% this year, 20% next year, and a consistent 15% forever.
Thanks, I short this stock for only 300 shares @ 37.28. Another 200 shares @ 40 just in case. Every 3 bucks pump I will add my postions. Happy trading.
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