Here are some facts for you to make your own opinion about Aluminum.
Stock level at 6 month low.
Aluminum price may make a new high, or consolidate at $1.
China has not bought metals since the chinese new year break. This increase in price and demand was solely from the US warehouse. Chicago and Detroit Aluminum stocks have been decreasing steadily everyday.
When the Chinese starts ramping up production again, Aluminum price may hit $1.15.
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Observe that only Alcoa Inc has not broken above its FEB 2 resistance.
Alcoa Inc is the only metal stock that is trading in a tight range.
Is there any negative news about this company?
Aluminum price has gone up. What is wrong with ALCOA INC?
Everything that is beneficial for Alcoa Inc has gone up.
USD index has gone up 10%, Aluminum price has gone up 5%. Compared to last quarter, Alcoa Inc will most probably increase their revenue by 5-10%. Their Cost Of Goods sold would most probably decrease by $250mln as the one off Italian Charge would not occur again.
Earnings Estimates by most analysts average at $0.17.
BULLISH estimate is $0.33. (using 95cts as AL price)
Bearish estimate is $0.08. (using 80cts as AL price)
The average Aluminum price this quarter seems to be 95cts.
Make your choice. Alcoa Inc is definitely my top pick despite its misery.
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